Alien Encounters: A Lifetime Deal

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The fundamental problem is that the last four terms are completely unknown, rendering statistical estimates impossible. The Drake equation has been used by both optimists and pessimists, with wildly differing results. The first scientific meeting on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence SETI , which had 10 attendees including Frank Drake and Carl Sagan , speculated that the number of civilizations was roughly equal to the lifetime [ non sequitur ] in years, and there were probably between 1, and ,, civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

Barrow used pessimistic numbers and speculated that the average number of civilizations in a galaxy is much less than one. An analysis that takes into account some of the uncertainty associated with this lack of understanding has been carried out by Anders Sandberg , Eric Drexler and Toby Ord , [35] and suggests that with very high probability, either intelligent civilizations are plentiful in our galaxy or humanity is alone in the observable universe, with the lack of observation of intelligent civilizations pointing towards the latter option.

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The Great Filter, in the context of the Fermi paradox, is whatever prevents "dead matter" from giving rise, in time, to expanding, lasting life according to the Kardashev scale. Other proposed great filters are the emergence of eukaryotes or of meiosis or some of the steps involved in the evolution of a brain capable of complex logical deductions.

There are two parts of the Fermi paradox that rely on empirical evidence—that there are many potential habitable planets , and that we see no evidence of life. The first point, that many suitable planets exist, was an assumption in Fermi's time that is gaining ground with the discovery of many exoplanets , and models predicting billions of habitable worlds in our galaxy. The second part of the paradox, that we see no evidence of extraterrestrial life, is also an active field of scientific research.

This includes both efforts to find any indication of life, [38] and efforts specifically directed to finding intelligent life. These searches have been made since , and several are ongoing.

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Although astronomers do not usually search for extraterrestrials, they have observed phenomena that they could not immediately explain without positing an intelligent civilization as the source. For example, pulsars , when first discovered in , were called little green men LGM because of the precise repetition of their pulses. Radio technology and the ability to construct a radio telescope are presumed to be a natural advance for technological species, [49] theoretically creating effects that might be detected over interstellar distances.

The careful searching for non-natural radio emissions from space may lead to the detection of alien civilizations.

Sensitive alien observers of the Solar System , for example, would note unusually intense radio waves for a G2 star due to Earth's television and telecommunication broadcasts. In the absence of an apparent natural cause, alien observers might infer the existence of a terrestrial civilization. It should be noted however that the most sensitive radio telescopes currently available on Earth would not be able to detect non-directional radio signals even at a fraction of a light-year , so it is questionable whether any such signals could be detected by an extraterrestrial civilization.

Such signals could be either "accidental" by-products of a civilization, or deliberate attempts to communicate, such as the Arecibo message. A number of astronomers and observatories have attempted and are attempting to detect such evidence, mostly through the SETI organization. Several decades of SETI analysis have not revealed any unusually bright or meaningfully repetitive radio emissions. Exoplanet detection and classification is a very active sub-discipline in astronomy, and the first possibly terrestrial planet discovered within a star's habitable zone was found in Such observational refinements may allow us to better gauge how common potentially habitable worlds are.

Self-replicating probes could exhaustively explore a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as a million years. Another speculation for contact with an alien probe—one that would be trying to find human beings—is an alien Bracewell probe. Such a hypothetical device would be an autonomous space probe whose purpose is to seek out and communicate with alien civilizations as opposed to Von Neumann probes, which are usually described as purely exploratory.

These were proposed as an alternative to carrying a slow speed-of-light dialogue between vastly distant neighbors. Rather than contending with the long delays a radio dialogue would suffer, a probe housing an artificial intelligence would seek out an alien civilization to carry on a close-range communication with the discovered civilization. The findings of such a probe would still have to be transmitted to the home civilization at light speed, but an information-gathering dialogue could be conducted in real time.

Direct exploration of the Solar System has yielded no evidence indicating a visit by aliens or their probes. Detailed exploration of areas of the Solar System where resources would be plentiful may yet produce evidence of alien exploration, [53] [54] though the entirety of the Solar System is vast and difficult to investigate.

Fermi paradox

Attempts to signal, attract, or activate hypothetical Bracewell probes in Earth's vicinity have not succeeded. In , Freeman Dyson observed that every developing human civilization constantly increases its energy consumption, and, he conjectured, a civilization might try to harness a large part of the energy produced by a star. He proposed that a Dyson sphere could be a possible means: Such a feat of astroengineering would drastically alter the observed spectrum of the star involved, changing it at least partly from the normal emission lines of a natural stellar atmosphere to those of black body radiation , probably with a peak in the infrared.

Dyson speculated that advanced alien civilizations might be detected by examining the spectra of stars and searching for such an altered spectrum. There have been some attempts to find evidence of the existence of Dyson spheres that would alter the spectra of their core stars. Those who think that intelligent extraterrestrial life is nearly impossible argue that the conditions needed for the evolution of life—or at least the evolution of biological complexity —are rare or even unique to Earth. Under this assumption, called the rare Earth hypothesis , a rejection of the mediocrity principle , complex multicellular life is regarded as exceedingly unusual.

The Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the evolution of biological complexity requires a host of fortuitous circumstances, such as a galactic habitable zone , a central star and planetary system having the requisite character, the circumstellar habitable zone , a right sized terrestrial planet, the advantage of a giant guardian like Jupiter and a large natural satellite , conditions needed to ensure the planet has a magnetosphere and plate tectonics , the chemistry of the lithosphere , atmosphere , and oceans, the role of "evolutionary pumps" such as massive glaciation and rare bolide impacts, and whatever led to the appearance of the eukaryote cell , sexual reproduction and the Cambrian explosion.

It is possible that even if complex life is common, intelligence and consequently civilizations is not. This is sometimes referred to as the "algae vs. It may be that while alien species with intelligence exist, they are primitive or have not reached the level of technological advancement necessary to communicate. Along with non-intelligent life, such civilizations would be also very difficult for us to detect, [68] short of a visit by a probe, a trip that would take hundreds of thousands of years with current technology. This is the argument that technological civilizations may usually or invariably destroy themselves before or shortly after developing radio or spaceflight technology.

Possible means of annihilation are many, [71] including war, accidental environmental contamination or damage, resource depletion, climate change , [72] or poorly designed artificial intelligence. This general theme is explored both in fiction and in scientific hypothesizing. Another hypothesis is that an intelligent species beyond a certain point of technological capability will destroy other intelligent species as they appear. The idea that something , or someone, might be destroying intelligent life in the universe has been explored in the scientific literature.

In , cosmologist Edward Harrison argued that such behavior would be an act of prudence: New life might commonly die out due to runaway heating or cooling on their fledgling planets.

These are thought to have been caused by events such as impact from a large meteorite, massive volcanic eruptions, or astronomical events such as gamma-ray bursts. Using extinct civilizations such as Easter Island as models, a study conducted in posited that climate change induced by "energy intensive" civilizations may prevent sustainability within such civilizations, thus explaining the paradoxical lack of evidence for intelligent extra-terrestrial life.

Cosmologist Alan Guth proposed a multiverse solution to the Fermi paradox. This hypothesis uses the synchronous gauge probability distribution, with the result that young universes exceedingly outnumber older ones by a factor of e 10 37 for every second of age. Therefore, averaged over all universes, universes with civilizations will almost always have just one, the first to develop.

A Lifetime Deal Alien Encounters

However, Guth notes "Perhaps this argument explains why SETI has not found any signals from alien civilizations, but I find it more plausible that it is merely a symptom that the synchronous gauge probability distribution is not the right one. It may be that non-colonizing technologically capable alien civilizations exist, but that they are simply too far apart for meaningful two-way communication.

Human searches may be able to detect their existence, but communication will remain impossible because of distance. In this case at least one partner in the exchange may obtain meaningful information. Alternatively, a civilization may simply broadcast its knowledge, and leave it to the receiver to make what they may of it. This is similar to the transmission of information from ancient civilizations to the present, [88] and humanity has undertaken similar activities like the Arecibo message , which could transfer information about Earth's intelligent species, even if it never yields a response or does not yield a response in time for humanity to receive it.

It is also possible that archaeological evidence of past civilizations may be detected through deep space observations. A related speculation by Sagan and Newman suggests that if other civilizations exist, and are transmitting and exploring, their signals and probes simply have not arrived yet. This is a tiny fraction of the lifespan of a galaxy under ordinary assumptions and calculations resulting from them, so the likelihood that we are in the midst of this transition is considered low in the paradox. Many speculations about the ability of an alien culture to colonize other star systems are based on the idea that interstellar travel is technologically feasible.

While the current understanding of physics rules out the possibility of faster-than-light travel, it appears that there are no major theoretical barriers to the construction of "slow" interstellar ships, even though the engineering required is considerably beyond our present capabilities. This idea underlies the concept of the Von Neumann probe and the Bracewell probe as a potential evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. It is possible, however, that present scientific knowledge cannot properly gauge the feasibility and costs of such interstellar colonization.

Theoretical barriers may not yet be understood, and the resources needed may be so great as to make it unlikely that any civilization could afford to attempt it. Even if interstellar travel and colonization are possible, they may be difficult, leading to a colonization model based on percolation theory. Colonization may thus occur in "clusters," with large areas remaining uncolonized at any one time. If human-capability constructs in a machine such as mind uploading are possible, and it is possible to transfer such constructs over vast distances and rebuild on a remote machine, then it might not make a strong economic sense to travel the galaxy by spaceflight.

After the first civilization have physically explored or colonized the galaxy, as well as sent such machines for easy explorations, then the subsequent civiliizations, after having contacted the first, may find it cheaper, faster, and easier to explore the galaxy through intelligent construct transfers to the machines built by the first civilization, which is cheaper than spaceflight by a factor of 10 8 However, since only a star system needs only one such remote machine, and the communication is most likely highly directed, transmitted at high-frequencies and at a minimal power to be economical, such signals would be hard to detect from earth.

Humanity's ability to detect intelligent extraterrestrial life has existed for only a very brief period—from onwards, if the invention of the radio telescope is taken as the dividing line—and Homo sapiens is a geologically recent species. But what are they protecting--and from whom? Ancient Astronaut theorists Giorgio A. Tsoukalos and David H. Childress explore a Polynesian land of bizarre figures and forbidden places in search of what could be the ultimate evidence of mankind's extraterrestrial origins. S 13 E 9 The Taken Aired on Aug 03, Millions of people around the world have claimed to be abducted by extraterrestrials.

Are these extraordinary accounts some form of mass psychological delusion? Or, might these stories actually be true? Ancient Astronaut theorist Giorgio A. Tsoukalos explores the latest scientific discoveries at some of the world's most ancient places to find evidence that extraterrestrials visited Egypt in the distant past.

S 13 E 6 Area 52 Aired on Jun 01, Could Area 51's notoriety act as a cover up to much bigger, top-secret extraterrestrial experiments taking place at multiple locations? S 13 E 5 The Desert Codes Aired on May 25, Could giant ancient drawings found etched into the desert floor be part of an ancient alien code?