The 78% Horse Racing System

She has only had 2 qualifiers that ran over jumps LTO but one of them won so I will leave them in for now. These are obviously small samples but for now sticking to those running in the same class or progressing and moving up a class from last run looks important. The market is also a decent guide with her runners it would appear. Finally, Rae Guest caught the eye the other day when I was flicking through some stats as he has a very good record with handicap debutants on turf and AW. They are rather impressive and solid stats I think. He is clearly good at hiding a horses true ability and placing them in their first handicap with a bit in hand.

It will be interesting to see if he can carry this on in the next few years. He does have the odd monster price winner but they are hard to find. I have been playing around with Mark Johnston handicappers and trying to find ways to profit. It wont make you rich but only averages 20 bets a season and it is nice to know such runners have a He remembered Matt Bisogno of www. Graeme did something very well.

He had a decent record when his handicappers were having only their first or second run in the last 90 days. Now, why is this important? This was potentially another method for identifying when horses were going to run well. However I cant think of a logical reason to exclude those runners.

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He does have the odd winner but the general stats were not good. Luca has a superb record at placing his horses in the lower grades only a couple of runners in C6 when they havent had a run in the previous 90 days. He performs well above market expectations and generally makes steady profits every year. A nice mini angle in which to target the Suzy Smith not to be confused with Sue Smith handicappers. They have to be generally well fancied. She has been quite consistent over 5 years and I will always allow a trainer one unprofitable year out of 5, especially when it isnt totally disastrous.

I think I have noticed a trend with the yard of Donald McCain and it could be one that helps pay for Christmas. The Donald McCain yard has been quiet in recent weeks but in the last few days there have been signs that things are about to turn around —and this would fit with recent history. Two weeks ago I opened up my system building software to see if there were any trainers who did well with their chasers in the month of December.

Donald McCain was the only trainer that stood out. His December record with handicap chasers is as follows…. As you can see this is an impressive record. In addition, a trainer who has successfully lifted a particular prize on two or more occasions is more likely to know what will be required to do so again. Results based on 5pt wins 54 bets: There were 12 winners at a strike rate of It is apparent that this method produces qualifiers that generally go off at too short a price, probably because trainers who have winning records in certain races are very often highlighted in the media.

Front Runners In Small Fields. A very satisfactory trial. Laying All-Weather Handicap Favourites. In such events, check for horses which are clear favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast. Then, check each of these in turn to see whether it has ever run on the track before. If not, lay the horse as per the staking instructions below. Lay at the shortest price that can be matched, to a liability of 5pts for each qualifier for the purpose of the trial results, the Racing Post betting forecast price is used.

Both above examples give a potential liability of 5 points. If a horse has never run on the all-weather before, there are obvious concerns regarding its suitability to the surface. Even if it has previous all-weather experience, but on a different track to today's, there are still concerns as explained below. In some instances these concerns can be outweighed by the price but, in the case of handicap favourites, that is less likely.

Most backers, although they are aware that Southwell has a Fibresand surface whilst the others have Polytrack, aren't fully aware of the big time differences that exist between these tracks. If five horses of identical ability set off to run 6f one at each of the all-weather venues at exactly the same time, this is what would happen: The Lingfield horse would beat both the Kempton and Great Leighs horses by 6 lengths those two would finish in a dead heat. The Wolverhampton horse would finish a further 7. Those very significant differences apply to the straightforward sprint distance of 6f, at which almost all races are run at a true pace.

It is easy, therefore, to see that much bigger differences can apply at longer trips, especially with many of those races being run tactically. To give a simple example of the effect that a change in tracks can have, a horse that runs an end-to-end gallop at Lingfield, and just about gets the trip, would have no chance of winning a similarly run contest over the same trip at Wolverhampton because it simply wouldn't stay.

Even though Kempton and Great Leighs have the same stamina requirements, they are left in the trial because the former is right-handed and the latter left-handed and there can often be a preference in that regard. Favourites in all-weather handicaps are more likely to be opposed by runners already proven on the track than is the case in non-handicaps, hence the use of handicaps for the trial. The system held its own without producing spectacular overall results. However, 13 of the last 15 lays were successful, producing a profit of Perhaps the most significant trend involved the odds-on favourites.

There were 11 odds-on favourites during the trial and only 4 of them managed to win, which is well below the expected win rate for those prices, although that sample is too small to be defining in any way. Obtain the necessary data: The Racing Post site provides a 'statistics' link for each meeting of the day. These 'statistics' links provide performance figures for trainers, jockeys and owners, in terms of winners over the last five seasons, at a particular track where applicable, ensure the appropriate filter for either Flat or Jumps is selected.

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Use each of these 'statistics' links in turn to identify horses whose connections trainer, jockey and owner are all listed within the first five in their respective categories. Repeat the procedure for each meeting of the day UK meetings only. Bet to win on each qualifier, provided there is not more than one in a race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race. Should a trainer, jockey or owner appear in the first five listed, despite recording no track wins, any horse representing them will not be a qualifier, nor will its presence prevent any other horse being a qualifier in the same race.

Trainers, jockeys and owners who have proven records of success at a particular track are of obvious interest on an individual basis, but when the three combine at the venue they represent a particularly potent force. During the course of this trial, the data provided on the Racing Post 'statistics' links was changed. For the first 66 bets of the trial, the data was restricted to the top five per category, based on winners over the last five years, whether or not they were involved today.

From bet 67 onwards, the 'statistics' links were amended to show five-year figures for all trainers, jockeys and owners involved today. The trial continued using this new data. In retrospect, and having discovered that the original data is still available, I am of the opinion that anyone playing this system should use the original data, rather than that now provided on the 'statistics' links. The data which was used for the first 66 bets can now be found by clicking on the individual meeting names on the page which summarises today's racing rather than on the 'statistics' links.

The profit after 66 bets was Using the original data, this system looks to have strong potential. Handicappers Down In Class. Qualifying criteria is as follows: System concentrates on handicap races only including nurseries. A qualifying runner must have the clear highest official rating OR in the race. It must also have finished in the first four home on its last run.

Its last run must have been in a UK handicap of a higher class than today's race. Class to be indicated by the Class number ie 1, 2, 3, 4 etc, where a lower number indicates a higher class. For NH handicaps, a qualifier's latest run must have been in the same type of event ie hurdles or chase as today's. Whilst factors like track type, distance, ground etc are all important, class is the single most important consideration.

Even if a horse is perfectly suited to today's track, distance and ground, it won't win if it is outclassed. This system aims to locate handicappers who are not only clear highest rated in a race, but who have also proved themselves to be competitive at a higher level in recent times. A marginal loss of 4. The vast majority of qualifiers are topweights, so filters to emphasise tight and downhill tracks should prove effective. Identify any race priced up early by bookmakers.

Convert the Racing Post betting forecast prices into percentage chances. Add together these percentage figures. Then divide each percentage figure in turn by the total percentage figure from step 3 and multiply by Convert bookmakers' early prices into percentage chances. Now divide each of the new percentage figures obtained in step 4 by its corresponding percentage figure from step 5 and multiply by This gives a value index for each runner.

A figure above indicates value. Bet to win on the horse with the highest value index provided it is over , taking the early price offered. Should two or more runners have exactly the same high value index, there is no bet for that race. The formula for converting prices into percentage chances can be found on the Useful Formulae page. Although fairly straightforward, all the above calculations can be carried out quickly and easily using the Price Finder betting tool.

That can only be done by quantifying chance. Using the Price Finder betting tool to make all the necessary calculations quickly and easily, this trial sets out to assess the accuracy of the Racing Post betting forecast in expressing true chance. Although any race with a live market can be analysed in this way at any time of day not necessarily well in advance , only those races priced up early on the evening before racing are covered in this trial.

This trial attempted to establish whether the Racing Post betting forecast is effective in expressing true chance. The qualifiers were all significantly shorter in the RP forecast than in the early live markets and most of them were outsiders. The qualifiers produced 8 winners at early prices of: Their corresponding SPs were: So 6 of the 8 SPs were significantly shorter than early prices, indicating that the winning qualifiers had indeed provided good value.

In addition to the winners, 15 qualifiers finished second or third at early prices of: Significantly, only 18 of the qualifiers returned an SP bigger than its early price, confirming that overall value was indeed obtained throughout the trial. Such a rate of price contraction would also be of interest to the exchange traders, who would easily have been able to lay off many of the qualifiers at far shorter than early prices. The horse finished second on its latest outing.

The jockey on board that day was partnering the horse for the first time. The same jockey rides again today. No bet in races with more than one qualifier. Many horses have quirks or certain ways of running that are only fully appreciated by jockeys to have ridden the horse before. If a new partnership was in action for the first time recently, the race should still be fresh in the jockey's mind.

If the partnership went close to scoring on that first occasion, the experience gained could be enough for the jockey to get the horse home in front next time. It was touch and go whether to let this trial run for a further 50 bets as the first 50 came out more or less level. The trial results were based on SP but it is very likely a profit would have been made using early prices. Penalties On Tight Tracks. Identify all meetings to be held on tight tracks, as designated in the 'Tracks - Flat' and 'Tracks - NH' tables to be found in the Pro Betting Guide main menu.

Identify any horse running under a penalty at these meetings. Horses running under a penalty are indicated on the Racing Post racecards by the penalty followed by an 'x' eg. Bet each to win, unless there is more than one qualifier in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that race. This is a method that should continue to at least hold its own over a long period of time. Value From Long Absences. Identify any runner returning to the track following an absence of days or more.

Note the trainer of the horse. Bet to win on any qualifying horse. If there are two or more qualifiers in the same race there is no bet for that race. One of the factors that tends to put punters off backing a horse they may otherwise support is a long absence from the track. The ability of proficient trainers to ready a horse following a long absence tends to be underestimated and many of these horses go off at bigger prices than they should, purely because of over-caution and uncertainty on the part of punters.

This one required some patience but it got there in the end. Identify all runners to have won over the course and distance of today's race indicated by the abbreviation 'CD' on the Racing Post race card. Check each one in turn and identify any to have won on the track more than once. Course wins need not all have been over the distance of today's race provided at least one of them was. Bet each qualifier to win, provided there are no other qualifiers in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that race.

Turf and all-weather tracks at the same venue are classed as different tracks. All race types are treated collectively. Of the bets, 19 won Look only at the two columns on the far right of the 'Last 6 RPR' section. These figures are the ratings awarded for a horse's two most recent runs.

Identify any runner with two ratings that are both higher than any achieved by its opponents. Bet all qualifiers to win. Any horse whose last two ratings are both higher than any achieved by its rivals on their last two outings clearly has an edge in terms of recent form. This kind of change can easily be spotted by looking for ratings given in italics. These signify that there is a fundamental difference between the race rated in italics and today's contest. It is suggested, therefore, that if either of a qualifier's ratings are in italics then the race should be discounted and no bet made.

This filter should significantly improve the performance of what had otherwise looked a promising method. Find the Racing Post web page which summarises today's racecards. In turn, click on the 'Favourites' link for each meeting. Ensure the appropriate statistics for today's racing are selected ie 'Flat' or 'Jumps'. Now, look for the races in that category for example: If the highest qualifying profit figure applies to more than one race, bet on all qualifying races. Take care with the age 'plus signs'. When racing takes place on a particular track over consecutive days, the favourites statistics will update overnight.

However, due to time constraints, the published qualifying races for the trial are taken from statistics available the evening before racing. Favourites have a far better long-term record in certain types of races than they do in others. Additionally, favourites have a far better long-term record on certain tracks than they do on others. The fact that the statistics are based on SP means that these profitable race categories and tracks are supplying favourites which are generally running at bigger prices than they should.

In addition, because the average price of favourites is relatively short, the statistics are far less likely to be skewed by a small number of bigger-priced winners. It is always the level-stake profit figure, and not the strike rate figure, which is most relevant in determining potential value. This goes a long way to demonstrating that historical profit trends are very unlikely to influence future profit trends. This makes sense because every race is a completely separate entity, a unique set of circumstances both in terms of horses and the betting, which has not previously been replicated, nor will be in the future.

Check the Racing Post Selection Box for each race of the day. In races where just two horses are selected, bet the one with the fewest votes. There is no bet for races where two horses are selected with equal votes. The Racing Post provides a list of newspaper tipsters' selections for each race, usually numbering a dozen or more. These lists seem to be very popular tools used by punters when making their own choices.

What punters don't always realise, however, is that the collective opinion of these tipsters can be greatly exaggerated. For example, let's say there is a race where two contenders stand out. There is very little between them, but a particular piece of form seems to give one of them a slight edge. The newspaper tipsters, being experienced form readers, will all pick up on this one factor and give a narrow verdict to the same horse. We then see something like a verdict between the two runners in question, which appears to be a very confident majority vote.

In actual fact, all the tipsters have realised there is very little between the two runners in question, but one small factor has swayed them all the same way. Punters, unsurprisingly, interpret a very confident majority verdict and the market subsequently reflects their belief. This situation is bound to lead to disproportionate prices, sometimes massively so. Nine times out of ten in these situations, the value has to lie with the bigger priced runner. After 43 bets the trial was still in profit, so the overall result was marginal and could possibly have reverted to profit had the trial continued..

Concentrate on all races run over 7f. In each qualifying race, bet the shortest priced runner in the Racing Post betting forecast to have recorded two or more wins which are listed as 7f in the 'Wins' section of its Racing Post horse history. In races where two or more runners are equal shortest priced qualifiers there is no bet for that race. System applies to all UK 7f races turf and all-weather. Being neither a sprint trip nor a mile, 7f is the distance over which the most potent specialists are to be found.

In contrast to failed sprinters raised in distance and failed milers dropped in distance, 7f specialists are made for the job. Forecast favourites who have never won over the trip before may be vulnerable against these specialists. The loss was marginal 6. Topweights On The Flat. Concentrate on Flat handicap races including nurseries which are run on tight tracks over distances of between 7f and 10f inclusive.

For a list of tight tracks see the Flat track matrix. Round actual race distances to the nearest furlong. Outer limits are therefore 6f y and 10f y. Bet to win on all clear topweights ignore any jockey claims. System applies to UK Flat races turf and all-weather. We have already proved in several system trials that the effect of weight is overestimated in the betting markets. This is especially the case on tight tracks, where horses never get into a protracted gallop when weight may become an issue.

The distance limits of the trial are specifically chosen to make full use of the bends on tight tracks, eliminating straight races whilst also negating any potential stamina issues. The final result doesn't provide an accurate picture and, in retrospect, the trial should have been given a longer run. This is definitely a topic which deserves to be revisited in the future. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race there is no bet for that race. Unraced horses are ignored. It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten.

The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses. Undoubtedly one of the most exciting trials so far. The profit of points from a total stake of points represented a It is clear that punters consistently underestimate the potential of these lightly-raced horses, particularly those from lower profile yards.

The trial was based on SP returns so a significantly higher profit could be expected from early prices. Bet to win on any horse running from a rating which is above the ceiling for that particular race. The ceiling for a race, if there is one, will be published at the top of the Racing Post race card eg. Official ratings for individual runners are shown in the 'OR' column on the right of the Racing Post race card. If there are two or more qualifiers in the same race, there will be no bet for that particular race.

Having originally been eligible to enter a particular race, based on its official rating at the time of the entries, a horse may then win another contest. The resulting penalty incurred for its interim success may mean that it will now run from a rating which is higher than the maximum intended by the rules of the race. Effectively, the horse is now running in a lower level of contest than it would otherwise be allowed to enter. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters underestimate this class advantage.

This trial began well but fizzled away in the second half, due to the very high number of placed horses. From a profitable situation after 28 bets, the following 22 bets contained just one winner together with 13 placings 9 of those runner-up. A re-run could easily produce break-even figures but the runners were generally too well supported to expect spectacular profits.

Bet to win on any horse running within 5 days of a previous outing. Whenever there is more than one qualifier in a race, there will be no bet for that race. Horses reappearing very quickly normally do so for a good reason. A winning horse may be out again quickly to avoid the handicapper. A losing horse may be out again quickly to recoup losses. A horse may have been given a prep spin shortly before a target race.

Some horses thrive on racing and are given multiple entries when they hit form. This trial will attempt to determine whether punters accurately quantify the chances of horses making quick reappearances.

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This looks pretty much a break-even trend in the long term. Having said that, the trial was deliberately run with no rules at all, other than a horse reappearing quickly. If a long-term break-even situation can be produced at SP without any filters, there must be potential for success when carefully considered filters are applied. Backing The Best Horses. Bet to win on the horse with the highest official rating at each meeting.

When more than one horse shares the top official rating at a meeting there will be no bet for that meeting. Superior class is often enough to pull a horse through, even when prevailing conditions may not be ideal. This simple trial will assess whether punters underestimate class, particularly when other factors may appear to be negative. The horses backed are all, according to the official handicapper, the best on view at their respective meetings. Potentially Underestimated Forecast Favourites.

Bet any horse that is clear favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast provided it failed to finish in the first four on its last run. Forecast favourites making their racecourse debut will not qualify. A horse's most recent run, be it good or bad, is often emphasised to a greater degree than is wise. A recent run under unsuitable conditions, or with another valid excuse for defeat, can lead to a horse generating less support that it deserves on its next outing. Also, finishing positions outside the first four can generally be viewed as being poor when in fact they may have been solid or promising runs, and perhaps in better company than today's.

Results based on 5pt wins 59 bets. Bet any horse travelling miles or more to a track at which it has previously been successful. If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there will be no bet for that race. Travelling distances for each meeting can be found on the 'Today's Horse Racing Cards' page on the Racing Post site under the 'Signposts' headings. Horses aren't usually sent on long journeys lightly.

If a horse has previously won at a remote venue and connections decide to send it back there again, it is usually because they have found a good opportunity for another successful visit. Bet any horse if it is the youngest runner in a handicap. Unexposed horses are often underestimated in the market because punters are unsure of their potential. Younger handicappers usually have less experience than their older rivals but they generally possess the greater scope for improvement. Consult the page on the Racing Post site which details today's horse racing cards. Select the 'Statistics' link for each meeting in turn UK meetings only , then filter for Flat or Jumps statistics as appropriate.

Scroll down to the 'Top Owners' section. Concentrate only on the owners who have sent 5 or more winners. Identify the owner with 5 or more winners whose runners have generated the biggest level stakes profit. Bet to win on all runners representing that owner, unless there is more than one in a race, in which case there is no bet for that race. Should two or more owners with 5 or more winners share the same highest level stakes profit, there will be no bets at that meeting. Should no owner with 5 or more winners have generated a level stakes profit, there will be no bets at that meeting.

Repeat the process for each UK meeting of the day. System applies to all meetings Flat and NH. For varying reasons, many owners tend to target specific tracks with their runners. This method aims to highlight those owners who win regularly at certain tracks, but whose runners also tend to be underestimated in the market hence the level stakes profit.

Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite BF on its last run, provided it didn't finish within a length per furlong of the winner. For example, if the race was 10f it didn't finish within 10 lengths of the winner. Should there be more than one qualifier in any race, there will be no bet for that race. System applies to all races Flat and NH. A well-beaten favourite is likely not to have run its race for whatever reason. Due to its heavy defeat, punters' confidence will probably be tempered for its next run and its subsequent price might be too big.

It is likely there was a valid reason for a heavy defeat in a race where a horse was thought to be the likeliest winner. Compensation could await at a much bigger price. Bet any horse that is clear top on Official Ratings provided it is also a course and distance winner denoted 'CD' on the Racing Post race card. This trial brings together three factors we have already proved can be profitable.

The Topweights System showed the effect of weight to be overestimated by punters, System 16 the CD System illustrated how course and distance winners can be bet to advantage, and profits from Official Ratings were demonstrated by System 55 Backing The Best Horses. Stamina For Stiff Tracks. Concentrate only on handicap races with more than 10 runners to be run on stiff tracks in the UK. Stiff tracks for UK Flat are: Beverley, Carlisle, Leicester, Newcastle and Salisbury. Stiff tracks for UK jumps are: If there is more than one qualifier for any race, there will be no bet for that race.

The race which a horse won previously over further may have been any type of race under Rules on any UK track. Stiff tracks demand stamina, especially when a race is run at a solid pace, which is more likely with bigger fields. A horse that has already won over a longer trip will have no problem with stamina and this advantage can prove crucial in the latter stages of a solidly-run race on a stiff track, when its rivals are running out of steam. If so, bet to win. This is an attempt to determine the effectiveness of two of the key Racing Post indicators when they are combined in a logical manner.

If all of a stable's horses over the last 14 days have run to their Racing Post Ratings or within the tolerance levels the Racing Post use to determine that fact , then we might expect that today's runner will do the same. If that proves to be the case and today's runner also has the clear top RPR for its race then, logically, its prospects should be favourable.

The problem was that they were heavily over-bet, hence the low returns. The qualifiers were mainly short-priced favourites and most of them went off at shorter prices than they should really have been. This scenario lends itself more to laying than to backing particularly laying to SP.

Alternatively, taking early prices would dramatically improve backing performance, although probably not to the extent required. Also, it appears that the RTF figures are updated at random times. Figures of have been noted and have then subsequently changed during periods of time when no racing was taking place. Obviously, the later the figures are noted before commencement of racing , the more likely they are to be accurate. Out Of The Doldrums. Bet any horse that won its last race, provided that: The race came within the last 30 days.

It finished out of the first three in each of its three previous like-for-like races ie in its last three Flat races when the qualifying race is on the Flat or in its last three NH races when the qualifying race is NH. It has run at least four times in total under the code of today's race Flat or NH. There are no other qualifiers in the race. There are many reasons for a horse suddenly hitting form following a period in the doldrums new yard, low handicap mark, new trip, different tactics, headgear etc. When this happens, the confidence it restores in the horse is often enough to spark a resurgence, even though it may only be a brief one.

If the horse is able to run again shortly afterwards, it may retain its new-found form and repeat the recent win. Sneaking Into Lower Grade. Bet any horse that is running from the ceiling mark in a handicap provided that its last run was in a higher-class UK handicap. The ceiling mark is the highest qualifying mark for a handicap eg a horse rated 70 in a handicap is on the ceiling mark. Qualifiers must be on the exact ceiling mark.

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A higher-class handicap means a handicap having a lower class number eg a Class 4 handicap is higher than a Class 5 handicap. If there is more than one qualifier for a race, there will be no bet for that race. A qualifier's previous run must have been in a higher-class UK handicap of the same type as today's eg Flat, hurdles, chase. System applies to all UK handicap races Flat and NH provided that a specific ratings range is given eg etc.

Qualifiers for this system have sneaked into a lower-graded handicap on the ceiling mark after having competed in better company. The worst case scenario for a horse in this situation is to run well without winning. Should that happen, a subsequent small rise of a pound or two would take them back out of the lower bracket.

With that in mind, trainers often make more discerning choices when placing these runners. Best Horse Is Best-In. A horse that is clear top on Official Ratings is deemed by the official handicapper to be the best horse in the race. Meanwhile, Racing Post Ratings are class ratings which are adjusted according to the weight being carried. In other words, if a horse had been carrying more weight, its Racing Post Rating would have been lower for that race.

If it had been carrying less weight, its RPR would have been higher. Qualifiers are therefore not only best-in at today's weights according to Racing Post Ratings, but are also the best horses in their races according to the official handicapper. Concentrate only on races to be run over 6. In each race, compare the most recent Racing Post Topspeed ratings for each runner. The most recent Topspeed rating for each runner can be found by following the Topspeed link directly beneath the appropriate race on the race card.

Select any runner whose most recent rating is 3 points or more higher than the the most recent rating of any other runner in the race 3 points is equivalent to a length at 5f and 3. All runners in a race must have at least one Topspeed rating otherwise there will be no bet for that race. Speed ratings are no use in races which are run at a moderate or slow pace. Sprint races are more likely than longer-distance events to be run at a true end-to-end pace. Also, sprinters tend to hit peak form for short periods of time, so their most recent performances are normally more relevant than their historical runs.

Therefore, a sprinter who is a length or more clear of its rivals, based on their most recent runs, must be a major contender for today's contest. Concentrate only on handicap races. Check out all previous course-and-distance CD winners to see whether they have ever won a course-and-distance handicap off a higher official rating than they have today. If so, they qualify provided there are no other qualifiers in the same race. Races with more than one qualifier are ignored.

Claiming Jockeys In Handicaps. Bet to win on all qualifiers. Ignore any qualifiers that are out of the handicap. These, if any, will be listed against a heading 'Long Handicap' to be found directly beneath the list of runners on a Racing Post race card. Trainers often use claiming jockeys in order to gain a weight advantage against the other runners in a handicap. When there are several claiming jockeys riding in a race, their weight advantages are compromised, but when there is only one runner with a claiming jockey, it has a weight advantage against the field.

Identify all runners priced at odds-on in the Racing Post betting forecast. Bet them all to win at a price of 2. Also select the 'Keep At In-Play' option. The Racing Post odds compiler has deemed these runners to have more chance of winning than losing. Due to time constraints I am unable to monitor all the pre-race trading, so bets will only be deemed as matched for the purpose of the trial if either the Betfair SP or the highest in-play price is 2.

Concentrate only on races confined to apprentice, amateur or conditional jockeys when indicated in the title of the race. In each of these races, select the shortest-priced runner in the Racing Post betting forecast to be ridden by a jockey who is not claiming an allowance. Bet to win on each, provided there is no more than one qualifier in a race, in which case there is no bet for that race. These races, more than most others, tend to expose differences in ability between riders.

They are very often won by one of the more competent riders in the race, even though the winning horse may not necessarily be the best-suited by prevailing conditions. This method attempts to uncover positive combinations of rider competence and horses' perceived chance of success. Results based on 5pt wins 49 bets. Bet any horse wearing a hood for the first time indicated h1 on the Racing Post racecard.

Hoods used in conjunction with any other type of headgear do not count even if the hood is being worn for the first time. Hoods have become more widely-used only in recent seasons and their popularity is growing. A hood is used to help a horse of a nervous disposition relax by blocking out noise without impairing vision.

Only a handful of trainers had sent out any runners in a hood just two or three seasons ago but that number is now fast approaching , which in itself advertises the perceived value of the hood to certain horses. The most dramatic effect is often seen on first application. A rather misleading final result. There were only 15 winners in total 9. Clearly, had just one or two of those near-misses got up to win then the trial would have produced an overall profit, possibly a very significant one. Scan the Racing Post race cards for the day in order to locate any runners that are clear top-rated under three different criteria: This trial attempts to find out whether there is any value in supporting runners that have been top-rated in three different ways.

Top-rated on official figures means a horse is deemed to be the best in the race by the official handicapper. The RPR is a class rating based on both previous performances and weight to be carried. The Topspeed rating is a speed figure calculated with weight as a consideration. System Trial 66 considered a combination of official ratings and RPRs, delivering a small 9.

This trial will find out whether the addition of a speed element a derivative of which was profitable in System Trial 1 can be effective. Concentrate only on UK all-weather meetings. Course winners at Wolverhampton only count if they have won there from 11 August onwards as that is when the current Tapeta surface came into use. System applies to all UK all-weather races. There are currently four UK all-weather circuits and they all have differing characteristics: Lingfield is a left-handed Polytrack circuit, Kempton is a right-handed Polytrack circuit, Wolverhampton is a left-handed Tapeta circuit and Southwell is a left-handed Fibresand circuit.

It is quite common for a horse to show a definite preference for just one of the all-weather tracks. Therefore, form from one all-weather track is by no means a reliable guide when studying a race to be held on another. In the same way, turf form is a notoriously unreliable guide when studying all-weather races. Using the above logic, horses that have already proven themselves as winners on a particular all-weather track theoretically have an additional advantage when there are no other course-winning rivals with obvious chances in opposition.

The perceived value in backing these qualifiers stems from the fact that runners with no winning form on a particular all-weather track may be over-estimated in the market.