Turtle Trading -Become a Market Wizard ( Trend Following Mentor)

I never had a lot of difficulty with the process of losing money, as long as losses were the outcome of sound trading techniques. But as a day-in, day-out process, taking losses does not bother me. From that point on, I paid strict attention to the correlations of all my positions. I measured my total risk in the market every day.

I assume that the price for a market on any given day. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. Regardless of the approach used, once a strategy is selected, the trader should stick to his game plan and avoid impulsive trading decisions. These axioms of Bruce Kovner are what I teach in my trend following mentor courses.

These words by Bruce Kovner are more powerful than seeking a Holy Grail indicator or system. If you can internalize them you are on your way to succeeding overtime as a trend follower. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You can use these HTML tags. The chart you use is logarithmic, not linear, so backtesting results seem flatter, than they really are. Trend following is not dead.

Even if we use counter trading strategy for example mean reversal system we are looking for a coming trend. Though i think that now trading is more accelerated and trends are shorter than they used to be. The log scale chart removes this exponential effect, allowing for a better comparison of CAGR which is simply proportional to the slope of the equity curve.

The Legendary Turtle Traders | New Trader U

Hi Jez, thanks very much for your dedication to trend following. At the risk of over simplifying, I really feel as though deciding what kind of trends you want to trade is crucial with regards to system development as they come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Odd as it may sound, It occupies a lot of my time. I have come to understand and appreciate the effects that different trend speeds and durations have on a trading model.

A bit of thinking aloud really… Interested to hear your thoughts when you have the time. No doubt this is why Richard Dennis kept it secret. As did Warren Buffet for the first half of his career. But that she can develop a system that works, use it whilst its working, realise when it stops working and stop using it and develop a new one that works. Or even better multiple systems that you can use at the same time.

Neither the original OP of the thread or the one who posted the graph made any claims that the algorithm tested followed the original turtle rules laid out in the pdf by Curtis Faith or any of the other turtle traders. Curtis Faith complete turtle rules pdf: This along with the rest of the memo simply suggested that the position sizes currently in use were too large for market conditions, and that they should be reduced.

The article largely assumes that the rules were backtested exactly as it would have been traded mechanically. There is not enough evidence to prove the original rules were used.

They will often show a bastard version of it and present the bastard as the original. But many vendors have come along using the turtle name and fame, including Michael Covey, to promote their improvements and turtle methods. Jon, I wrote this article a while ago but looking back on it, it seems that the main points I put forward were: Turtle trading is not as profitable as it used to be. And I do not think anybody would argue that point.

Avoiding a blow-up in this context: I believe the comment: I have no idea whether the turtle system is still profitable today mainly because I do not trade it myself. But I do use mechanical trading systems extensively. To imply that something mechanical may or may not be as good performance wise, without looking at the fundamental inputs the system itself in this case would mean that we are relying on consensus in order to declare something as being valid or not.

This is more like trading as a religion: In regards to the second point about being lucky, the risk may have been up to double what they originally planned for, but so would the drawdowns also as the memo stated.

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It is unlikely that it was pure chance that lead to their success, especially considering that according to the pdf I mentioned , they usually traded multiple liquid instruments at any given time. Do you recommend or propose a mechanical trading alternative that is not based on what you consider luck? Also that they were lucky to able to trade in such a profitable period for short-term trend following compared to trend followers trading now for example. Just a bit of attention-grabbing headline using a famous successful trading case to basically open up the discussion on the fact that trend following systems might have to change and adapt to conditions, as presented in the follow-up article: I agree with the view that unintentionally running at double heat and discovering the error when the market has been running your way is lucky.

Bruce Kovner: Market Wizard Trend Follower

No western company would use the name, but who wants to be unlucky? By the way they are quite lucky. Part of Lucky Goldstar.

Skilled, hardworking, blah blah, but their lucks been ok so far too. Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. Sy blog, Systematic Trading research and development, with a flavour of Trend Following. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures trading is complex and presents the risk of substantial losses; as such, it may not be suitable for all investors.

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Sy recommends CSI Data. Were the Turtles just lucky? Many thanks for the best posts in the blogosphere and all the best.