Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards
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He specialises in uncertainty assessment for complex systems, notably environmental systems such as climate and natural hazards. He has made several important contributions in the statistical field of computer experiments, including general approaches for representing model limitations, informal and formal approaches to model calibration and multivariate emulation for expensive models, such as climate models. Dr Rougier's recent and current collaborations include climate prediction and palaeo-climate reconstruction, ice-sheet modelling and sea-level rise, and inference for dynamical systems such as glacial cycles, avalanches and hydrocarbon reservoirs.
He is a volcanologist with interests in hazard and risk assessment, and his research includes the physics of volcanic eruptions and fluid dynamics of hazardous volcanic flows.
He is the world's most highly cited scientist in volcanology and a former President of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior. Professor Sparks has been involved in hazard and risk assessment with advice for governments for volcanic emergencies, including during the eruption of the Soufri re Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and the emergencies related to volcanic ash from Iceland in She has worked with researchers to explore the interface between environmental science and social science for over ten years, initially at the UK Research Councils and later at the University of Bristol.
Dr Hill's research interests are in human geography, archaeology and the environment, using non-representational theory to explore relations between people and the material world. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview Cambridge University Press Bolero Ozon.
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Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards. Hill , Robert Stephen John Sparks. Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J.
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- NHESS – Special issue – Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards.
Smith, Thorsten Wagener, and Matt Watson. Short summary Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and implications of applying the principles to natural hazard science are discussed.
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Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Short summary This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F.
Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards
Short summary Scour erosion during floods can cause bridges to collapse. Modern design and maintenance mitigates the risk, so failures are rare.
The residual risk is uncertain, but expert knowledge can help constrain it. We asked 19 experts about scour risk using methods designed to treat judgements alongside other scientific data. The findings identified knowledge gaps about scour processes and suggest wider uncertainty about scour risk than might be inferred from observation, models or experiments alone. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Short summary We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts, making use of the limited available sources of information: An upper bound is estimated rather than the most likely value.
Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards | NHBS Academic & Professional Books
Short summary This research was conducted in order to determine what effect a longer hurricane season is likely to have on flooding risk in the southeastern United States. This is signifiant, as global climate change is likely to increase sea surface temperatures and extend the hurricane season. Short summary Risks from flooding are of global importance. Experience gained in Nepal is presented to demonstrate that empowering the communities impacted by flooding to be active participants in risk mitigation can have significant positive impacts.
In part this is achieved through community involvement in the provision of warnings based on observations of river flow upstream. The success of simple, robust methodology for the early provision of such warnings based on predicting future river flows is shown. Short summary Landslides threaten communities globally, yet predicting their occurrence is challenged by uncertainty about slope properties and climate change.
We present an approach to identify the dominant drivers of slope instability and the critical thresholds at which slope failure may occur.