Long-Term Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies: 10
Indicators Long-term interest rates Long-term interest rates forecast Short-term interest rates Short-term interest rates forecast. Long-term interest rates Source: My pinboard Add this view Go to pinboard. Countries Highlighted Countries Highlight countries Find a country by name.
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Long-term interest rates
Time yearly quarterly monthly latest data available. Definition of Long-term interest rates Long-term interest rates refer to government bonds maturing in ten years. Last published in Publication. Citation Please cite this indicator as follows: The G7 plays a crucial role in the raising of ambition of climate action this year. Therefore, climate policies of these largest economies in the world and their actions are particularly important within the process of transition towards a low-carbon economy. Ahead of the event it is worth taking a closer look at the climate performance of these seven countries analysed in the Brown to Green Report by the international partnership Climate Transparency.
The Brown to Green Report is the most comprehensive independent assessment of the climate performance of G20 countries comparing country action in the areas of emissions, decarbonization, policy performance and financing the transition. Produced by experts from more than 13 organisations from 10 different G20 countries it assesses data from a global perspective.
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Canada performs very low in the two categories of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use per capita — it has the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita and the highest energy use per capita in the G7. While hydropower dominates its power sector, Canada has one of the highest rate of new wind energy installations. They give credit to their government for developing the Pan-Canadian Framework on Climate Change and Clean Growth that sends a signal for a strengthened climate policy. Although Canada has cut some subsidies to exploration, it continues to subsidise the production and consumption of fossil fuels.
It has the lowest level of emissions per capita in the G7, with a decreasing trend during recent years.
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The country performs high in the category energy use per capita. Experts give France a high score for its policy performance. They expect President Macron to uphold the targets set by the previous administration. France is one of the three G7 countries that has submitted a long-term emissions development strategy to the UNFCCC, and has a national strategy for near-zero energy buildings as part of EU policies. France is one of the G7 countries that is highly attractive to renewable energy investment.
It aims for a decarbonisation of its electricity sector by , although its renewable energy target remains relatively unambitious. France continues to support fossil fuels, most notably through consumption subsidies for diesel. France is a frontrunner in green finance: Since the financial crisis in , concern over the sustainability of some EU countries' sovereign debt has continued to mount higher and higher.
This paper explores the ways in which the financial crisis caused the deterioration of European debt-to-GDP ratios, examines which countries are on sustainable debt paths and quantifies the fiscal adjustment required per country for debt sustainability. Over the last two years the international community has grown more and more concerned about the unprecedented difficulties experienced by some euro area EA countries in financing their public debt. At the same time, almost all the EA countries started tight fiscal corrections under the strengthened EU Commission's surveillance 1 in order to secure their fiscal positions and avoid contagion.
Nonetheless, the outlook became gloomier in autumn We particularly consider the most troubled EU countries and make a comparison with others. Our objective is to understand how the crisis has caused the current difficulties and how costly corrective measures will be.
We start by studying current developments. We then assess the necessary fiscal adjustment to control the DGR. The highest variation for the EU15 group is, however, the period In absolute terms, the current DGR level of the EU15 group is higher than ever, but it remains comparable to past values.
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Given its countercyclical dynamics, the DGR has generally increased during slowdowns and diminished during periods of growth. This comparison over time shows that the large DGR increase is unprecedented neither in magnitude nor in terms of simultaneity among countries. In many countries, current DGR levels are comparable to previous values to wit: Italy, Spain, Belgium, Ireland. A government's capacity to serve its debt depends upon its revenues, which are closely related to its GDP evolution.
For this reason, debt analyses are developed considering debt with respect to GDP. Moreover, this makes a cross-country comparison straightforward. The evolution of DGR is explained using the debt equation. The debt equation is a difference equation derived from budget accounting 1 which indicates the dependence of DGR upon the interest rate implicit , the GDP growth rate and the primary balance.
The simplest debt equation is:. In textbooks, the stock-flow adjustment term is not reported, and instead seigniorage is included. However, seigniorage is not relevant in empirical applications for the EU countries while operations which either generate deficit and not debt, or vice versa, are of a relevant magnitude.
Equation 1 describes the evolution of debt in an intuitive way. The snowball effect accounts for the combined effect of the interest payment and GDP growth on the debt rollover. To make clearer the contribution of these two factors, Equation 1 is rewritten in a way to separate the two effects and to consider explicitly the inflation erosion effect The debt equation can be complicated further by considering the issuance of foreign currency denominated debt.
Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Debt issuance in a foreign currency is almost null for the EU countries. Figure 1 shows that the DGR has started to increase since Although Italy and Spain are not compliant with this criterion, we also comment on these countries because of mounting concern over the sustainability of their debt. The analytical decomposition discussed in this section briefly explained in Box 1 and in detail in Cafiso 4 quantifies the contribution of each component driving the DGR variation.
We explicitly consider the structural part of the DGR variation: We also mention the stock-flow adjustment component. Some components contribute positively, others negatively. All values are averages of , , figures.
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The primary balance may be in surplus or in deficit; a primary surplus lessens the increase of the DGR while a deficit increases the DGR because it needs to be financed. The average primary balance PB in the triennium is The effect of each component on the final DGR variation is marked by the sign at the top of each column. However, Italy differs since it shows a sound primary balance stance. Greece's deficit worsens from The burden of outstanding debt is quantified by the interest bill.
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The average real interest bill RIB is 1. While for Greece and Italy this is due to their high debt stock, Ireland's high RIB stems mainly from deflation in the period considered. The bill is directly related to the outstanding amount of debt, which is why its weight is at the top for Italy and Belgium Apart from countries with a large debt stock and a sound PB stance, interest payment has had a minor effect on the DGR evolution so far.
The effect of negative growth has been particularly adverse in terms of GDP for Greece The yearly debt variation is largely driven by the financing needs of the government net balance including interest, ESA95 , but other governmental operations determine the evolution of debt by an amount known as the stock-flow adjustment SFA. The SFA amount depends upon operations which either generate debt but not deficit, or vice versa, and which have a more financial, non-budget origin. For some countries, particularly those with a low DGR increase and a sound fiscal stance, this accounts for the majority of the DGR variation to wit, Denmark, Finland and Germany.
In this section we discuss DGR projections under two different scenarios. We use projections to assess EU countries' fiscal stances before the crisis and to consider how their DGRs would evolve if the economy were to continue to perform on average as it had in the past. In scenario 1, the parameters are set equal to their average.
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We name this the "positive scenario" where EU15 countries are supposed to enjoy pre-crisis growth rates. In scenario 2, the parameters are set equal to their average. This is the period available since the introduction of the euro in , and it includes the years of the economic crisis.