Linfluence des systèmes électoraux sur la vie politique (French Edition)

The approximation of this proportion that is regarded as a sociological constant is adjusted by matching the electoral data of the last three Spanish general elections. After matching the data it turns out that. As we commented previously, Spanish population is suffering from the consequences of long-term unemployment rate. A proportion of long-term unemployed citizens orient their vote intention towards extremist parties looking for possible solutions outside the ES parties.

The proportion of population transiting from AB to EX is measured throughout the Spanish poverty indicator [ 20 ]. Analyzing the behavior of this indicator for the last 4 years — and assuming that this remains stable until because the Spanish economy is not going to improve in an important degree , we found that this quarter rate is about 0. Thus, the rate of radicalization due to Spanish poverty indicator is denoted by.

Finally, we consider the supporters of the Government parties to become disappointed with the labor of the Government changing their vote intention from ES to AB. This may occurs due to two main reasons: The coefficient is expressed as follows: This indicator is estimated quarterly by [ 16 ].

The constant factor 0.

That is, about The sociological factor 0. The data of are provided by [ 16 ] until July From this time until the end of our period of study January , we assume that goes slightly down due to the continuous diffusion of corruption cases of the two main Spanish ES parties PSOE and PP , also a persistent application of new taxes combined with the welfare system deterioration, and finally, the demographic factors composed of the birth and death rates and the new effect of Spanish emigrating abroad seeking for a job.

This parameter is estimated according to the data coming from [ 15 ]. We assume that all Spanish citizens becoming year-old entry into the system are distributed equally among the three subpopulations. Thus, where is the number of births at quarter and is the Spanish population at quarter. Then, the exit from the system could happen due to two reasons, the biological death measured throughout the death rate at quarter , uniformly quarterly distributed. This parameter is estimated throughout data provided by [ 15 ]. We assume that this rate remains constant for the period from until The second reason for exiting the model is the Spanish emigration effect due to the lack of jobs in the Spanish market.

The Spanish emigration number is about , people per year. We assume that the amount of Spanish people leaving Spain remains constant due to the economic crisis until January We assume that this exit amount occurs equally from ES and AB subpopulations, and even when they have the right to vote remotely we assume they do not.

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In further section, we will study the robustness of the model under the change of values of indicator for the period of — The above analysis is mathematically written by the following equations and also illustrated in Figure 1: This section deals with quantification and simulation of the subpopulation sizes throughout the period of study. As we mentioned above, we are considering the Spanish unemployment rate and the trust on the Government labor indicator.

It is clear that for the short-term future period — , we should assume an estimation of these indicators. Related to the economic one, there are some prestigious institutions forecasting these values. Thus, we built one pessimistic scenario based on [ 17 ] for , and on [ 18 ] for , While the optimistic scenario is based on [ 19 ] forecast embracing the whole period. As our study is split into quarters of a year periods, we distribute uniformly by quarters the annual variation of the Spanish unemployment rate due to the annually of the available information see Table 1.

On the other hand, the trust on the GLI is based on [ 16 ] for the periods of and , but also at our own estimations for and We assume that due to the continuous publications of corruption events connected with the two main parties PSOE and PP , this indicator evolves worsening until the end of the period of study January The information about this indicator is provided quarterly see Table 2.

Computing the subpopulations ES , AB , and EX , starting from the initial subpopulations at January , using the difference system 6 one can estimate the values collected in Table 4. As Table 4 shows and Figure 2 illustrates, at the end of the period of study, January , the expected electoral support of ES parties achieves With respect to the extremist support EX it is Finally with respect to the abstentions AB it is As the main goal of the paper is the short-term forecast of the electoral support of the three involved subpopulations, it is necessary to assume the values of the trust on the GLI and the political trust indicator.

Thus, it is convenient to analyze the sensitivity of the model results under changes in assumed values of these indicators. Due to the constant political cases of corruption affecting the two main parties, the trust on the Government indicator is assumed to decrease. As a result the subpopulations at year are estimated for the different values of the trust on the Government labor indicator see Figure 3. The coefficient that explains the transit from ES to EX due to the political trust is built by the expression , where is the value of the political trust indicator at quarter and is a sociological constant that is adjusted taking into account the electoral data of the last three Spanish general elections.

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In order to improve the reliability of the results of the model and as the estimations of this constant are approximated, it is convenient to study the sensitivity of the model results under changes in this parameter. As a result was estimated in the value interval , what allow us to compute the subpopulations results at see Figure 4.

From the mathematical point of view, the proposed model could be easily replicated to study the electoral behavior of any other country with the obvious considerations of appropriate electoral data, socio-political-economic indicators, electoral laws, [ 24 — 27 ] and demographic factors.

The model predicts that the support of abstentions and blank voters, that is, the subpopulation AB, remains approximately constant since the last election in November until the expected time if general elections are not held in advance in spite of the coming reduction of the electoral register of about , Spanish citizens who emigrate looking for a job we assume that they do not vote.

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The previous results imply that probably it is not going to be possible to get sufficient electoral support to constitute a Government without extremist parties. It looks like the only possible imagined Government coalition would involve at least three parties, including between them one extremist party.

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In some way this paper advances the end of the hegemonic two-party system in Spain although is well known that the Spanish electoral system favors the two party-system [ 24 , 26 ]. Thus, all types of measures addressed to improve the economic scenario of the country will help to stop this trend. In our opinion, which agrees with [ 5 ], unlike the current measures of the Government, they are focused on a growth of taxes and also an irrelevant reduction of the public spending.

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We mean that the cuts of the public spending should not be only addressed to reduce the size of public servants staff but mainly consultants are directly chosen without any technical or professional filter by local, regional, and national politicians about 1,, people in , [ 5 ]. The current Government is not aware that Spanish citizens are waiting for an important reduction of the public spending related to the job of political administrators instead of a continuous growth of taxes and cuts of the welfare system. Apart from these issues, the lack of compliance of the electoral programs has an influence on the shift of ES voters supporting the Government to the abstentions AB , and also the ES voters may punish the Government by voting for extremist parties.

In order to reduce the progressive political and institutional disappointment of Spanish citizens, it is clear that measures preventing the political corruption, political privileges, and excesses as well as an improvement of the transparency of public activity are necessary and urgent. Just to quote some of them, we have a reform of the constitution, stabilizing the political territorial administration against the separatist stresses , the elimination of the public financial support to labor unions and firm associations, new formulas of management for expensive public services.

What is also urgent is a reform of the current political parties law to improve the transparency of the political system as well as a change of the electoral law that punishes the appearance of new emergent political offers [ 4 , 6 , 28 ]. The authors of this paper would like to thank Phd.

Abstract and Applied Analysis. Subscribe to Table of Contents Alerts. Il restera aussi chef politique du Front commun. Le pouvoir a plusieurs affaires judiciaires en cours contre Katumbi. Mais cet accord est fragile: Il pourrait choisir parmi plusieurs options: This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details. Time for a Modest Deal: How to Get U.

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