If All Else Fails: The Challenges of Containing a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Russia was the second nation to develop nuclear weapons after the Unites States. So the question was: Who would be the Nth country? However, acquiring the necessary materials to fuel the bomb, such as weapons-grade uranium , proved to be difficult at the time. Weapons-grade uranium, or isotope U, is a highly unstable form that makes up less than 1 percent.

The Federation of American Scientists estimates that uranium needs to be refined to a concentration of at least 80 percent U to be weapons grade, though upwards of 90 percent is preferable. Other significant hurdles remain, related to everything from enriching the material, to building a successful detonation device, to delivering it all with conventional missiles that may not be able to carry the extra weight of a nuclear warhead. A popular way of achieving weapons-grade uranium is by using a gas centrifuge process, whereby a converted gaseous form known as uranium hexafluoride is released into a spinning cylinder.

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The force generated by the rotating cylinder separates U isotopes from the heavier U isotopes. Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, says uranium enrichment is now less of a barrier for nations like Iran should they decide to begin producing weapons. U differs from U in that it can undergo an induced fission chain reaction, a process that begins with using a subatomic particle known as a neutron to split the atom of a radioactive material like uranium into smaller pieces.

The destructive power of a nuclear bomb is unleashed when an atom that has been split ends up sending its neutrons slamming into other atoms and splitting them, which in turn creates the chain reaction. A supercritical mass is formed in a uranium bomb by initially storing the fuel as separate subcritical masses to prevent the bomb from detonating too early, and then joining the two masses together. The bomb also needs to be designed to allow enough of the chain reaction to take place before the initial energy from the explosion causes the bomb to fail.

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nuclear bomb needs about 33 pounds 15 kilograms of enriched uranium to be operational.

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The bulkiness of other bomb materials also make it harder to apply the technology to existing long-range missile systems. But the means of verification are in many cases secret. This presents a major problem: We will vote in the coming days on the Iran deal, but we cannot even read certain foundational documents pertaining to how that verification will occur, and our own government is not even a party to those agreements.

I find that deeply troubling.

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With billions of dollars in sanctions relief, Iran is sure to find plenty of states that are eager to sell those weapons, especially Russia and China. This has direct and dangerous implications for the United States, especially our armed forces. After all, the ultimate guarantee that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon is not a page document. It is the capability of the U. Yet the agreement itself would enable Iran to construct the very kind of advanced military arsenal that could raise the cost of employing our military option should it become necessary.

In short, if this agreement fails, and U. This has been the focus of our oversight in the Committee on Armed Services. And from this perspective, this bad Iran deal only looks that much worse.

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It is a geopolitical challenge. Unfortunately, if such a strategy exists, there is no evidence of it. Now Iran will receive tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief.

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Iran will likely use this sanctions relief to boost arms supplies to its terrorist proxies, sew greater chaos in the region, and double down on Bashar Assad right when he needs it most. For decades, Republican and Democratic Administrations have sought to contain the malign influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran and prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Our allies and partners have entrusted much of their own security to the Unites States because they have believed that our commitments were credible. Our allies and partners in the Middle East have increasingly come to believe that America is withdrawing from the region, and doing so at a time when Iran is aggressively seeking to advance its geopolitical ambitions.

These fateful decisions may well manifest themselves in growing regional security competition, new arms races, nuclear proliferation, and possibly conflict—all of which would demand more, not less, U.

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Vladimir Putin is using 21st century weapons to further his 19th century ambitions of Russian empire—most dramatically in Ukraine, where Putin seeks to annex the territory of a sovereign country. Our President goes to Estonia, and days later, Russia abducts an Estonian agent on Estonian territory.

What message does that send? Our President visits Asia, and the next week, China escalates tensions with a U. Our President visits Alaska, and five Chinese warships show up in the Aleutians. Meanwhile, China continues its military modernization, while building and militarizing land features in international waters. Again, there is no deterrence.

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And the Administration does next to nothing. There is no deterrence, so attacks continue. The Iranian regime is furthering its ambitions to become the dominant power in the Middle East, and the deal before us today will help them.

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Congress has unfortunately been complicit in this disaster. But if the President showed as much personal engagement and willingness to compromise with Republicans as he did with the Iranians, we could repeal the Budget Control Act, end sequestration, and fund the government tomorrow.

We have been told that there are no good options to the challenges we face, as if there ever are in the real world. We have been told that we cannot solve every problem in the world, as if that absolves us from ever attempting to solve any problem.