The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East

Russia is engaged in highlevel talks with OPEC, specifically Saudi Arabia, to coordinate production levels in order to keep oil prices near their historic highs. Russia has also been working very closely with Iran on its nuclear projects, providing the technology and materials the latter needs in its quest for nuclear power -- and perhaps a nuclear weapon. To date, energy cooperation between the two has been limited to the point of being non-existent, but this will likely change.

Russia and China, on the other hand, have been strategic rivals since the s. Historical animosities may prove difficult to overcome in the long run, but in the meantime China is almost frantically trying to gain access to either Russian or Kazakh resources. Its eventual success or failure has important implications. The failure to secure an exclusive crude oil pipeline from Russia has irked and worried China, especially since a deal has been mooted which may involve Japan instead.

China also fears that Russia will exercise its influence over Kazakhstan and force Kazakhstan to abandon its proposed pipeline projects intended for China.

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China now appears to be trying other methods, including an attempt to bid for a share of the Yukos assets, but these endeavors also appear in doubt. The most intriguing component of the evolving strategic triangle may be the relationship between the two components of one of the legs -- China and India. Most analysts predicted this relationship would either never come about, due to a lack of complementary interests, or would become a highly competitive one, as each tried to assert strategic control over Asia. While the latter scenario may yet come to pass, the two sides currently appear not only to be cooperating, but actively promoting a mutual strategic understanding.

Given their geographical proximity, the two rising powers jostling for influence in Asia would have had to come to the table at some point. That they have done so sooner rather than much later, and that they appear to have reached an understanding, has come as a bit of surprise.

It seems that they have agreed to an approach whereby China provides the hardware and India provides the software. In other words, China will continue its strong manufacturing and industry-based growth, while India will focus more on services and, to a lesser extent, commodity production. Should either one feel that their security of supply is threatened, however, then conflict may well emerge. The US and Europe have adopted two very different approaches to managing change as the strategic triangle develops.

The rise of a potential strategic competitor in the form of China is something the US appears to be unable to countenance, as evidenced by the recent textile tariffs and threats over currency revaluation, not to mention the ongoing standoff over Taiwan. The US and India have had a limited history of direct relations, as the former was a firm supporter of Pakistan during the Cold War, while India fell somewhere between the nonaligned camp and the Soviet one.

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These issues came to a head during the recent Indian attempts to secure gas from Iran, with the US explicitly demanding that India scuttle these plans. What this means in practice is that the US has identified certain factors it views as critical in the drive to implement its version of stability and growth -- namely, democracy, free enterprise, secularism and equal rights.

While relations between church and state are not an issue in Russia, the US feels that Russia under President Vladimir Putin has regressed on many of the other fronts, especially in terms of democracy and the unfettered conduct of markets. Any strategy or policy or action toward the region is by default oil-motivated to some degree. But what is the most successful method for tapping into this region to make sure that oil keeps flowing and radical Islamism does not spread? To date, the invasion of Iraq seems to have fulfilled neither of these two conditions, yet instead of rethinking its strategy, the US continues to threaten both Iran and Syria, and to continue quietly nudging Saudi Arabia as well.

The US seems to have decided to hedge its strategy of explicit calls for reform throughout the Middle East with strategic relationships with the smaller Gulf producers of Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. The idea, then, is an old British one: By undermining the support Saudi Arabia receives from the Gulf states, the US hopes to keep the region divided and eventually return oil prices to lower levels. The US appears to be pursuing a similar strategy in the former Soviet Union, whereby it is attempting to bypass the large state of Russia and cut a series of deals with the smaller producers in central Asia.

Hydrocarbon deals have been accompanied by US force emplacements in the former Soviet republics, a development that has been none too welcome in Moscow. Washington has also carried this strategy to Asia as well, where it has tried to maintain a sizable naval force in order to control the strategic seaways.

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At the end of the day, the larger countries in the strategic triangle will be more important given their size, resources and geopolitical weight -- so the US approach is fraught with risks. For Europe, unlike the US, the Middle East is not a remote, alien region to be treated according to narrow interests. The entirety of the broader Middle East, stretching from Morocco to Iran, borders the EU, and thus Middle Eastern events can spill across the boundaries.

Anywhere between 10—15 percent of the population of France is now of Muslim origin, mainly from Algeria, and between five and seven percent of the population in England, Spain and Germany is Muslim. These immigrant groups are rapidly becoming political actors in their own right -- fomenting fears of domestic unrest and other signs of anti-immigrant backlash. But the EU has not attempted to force an external economic or political model on the region. In , these meetings culminated in the Barcelona Declaration, which laid out the parameters for a strategic multilateral partnership aimed at promoting economic, political and cultural development in the southern Mediterranean states.

The Barcelona process, or the Euro-Med Partnership, is the formalization of numerous bilateral agreements, linkages and informal relations between European countries and their southern Mediterranean partners. The partnership is focused on economic cooperation and development, political reform, and cultural and social exchange. Twice a year, representatives from the partner countries on both sides, the EIB, the EU Commission and regional financial institutions meet to discuss projects.

According to its website, the EIB aims to invest approximately 10 billion euros between and Typical projects have included everything from construction of power plants, gas pipelines and refineries to loans to small private- sector enterprises.



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While there have been obstacles to the process, namely the difficulties inherent in any process involving both Israeli and Palestinian representatives, it is still widely viewed as a highly positive effort, one which has already begun to yield gains for both sides. Egypt, Algeria and Lebanon have also signed and ratified and are finalizing their implementations.

The two remaining nations in the area are thus Syria and Libya, with the former in the final stages of negotiation, and the latter having begun the process to move from observer status to a full member. In addition to the approximately 2 billion euros slated for investment each year, Euro-Med provides for the training of officials working in public administration and institutions. The current goal is to train over 1, officials by Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.

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Would you like to tell us about a lower price? If you are a seller for this product, would you like to suggest updates through seller support? This volume explores the complex interrelationships among China, the United States, and the Middle East-what the authors call the "vital triangle. Such scholarship has a long history and no doubt a long future. But it is the three-dimensional equation-which seeks to understand the effects of the China-Middle East relationship on the United States, the U.

This approach captures the true dynamics of change in world affairs and the spiraling up and down of national interests. Central to this analysis is a belief that if any one of the three sides of this triangular relationship is unhappy, it has the power to make the other two unhappy as well. The stakes and the intimacy of the interrelationship highlight not only the importance of reaching accommodation, but also the potential payoff of agreement on common purpose. Read more Read less. Applicable only on ATM card, debit card or credit card orders.

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